Iran’s Missiles Did What U.S. Diplomacy Couldn’t
Iran struck six Gulf states and destroyed its own influence. The U.S. gained four structural advantages. China is the biggest indirect loser. Full…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
Iran’s Leverage Illusion: Why the Clock Is Ticking for Tehran, Not Washington
The public debate asks whether Trump can walk away. The real question is what happens when he does.
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
When Sanctions Unwind Themselves: The Iran-Russia Transmission Chain
How a military strike triggered an oil shock, dismantled a sanctions regime, and funded the adversary.
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
The Ceasefire Is Priced In. The Normalization Lag Isn’t.
Ceasefire ≠ normalization. Oil supply faces a 4-to-8-week lag across insurance, crew, port, and upstream layers. Cross-asset implications for…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
When Every Clock Counts Down to the Same Day: The Endgame Structure from Tokyo 1945 to Tehran 2026
Structural analysis of the Iran conflict endgame using the 1945 Japan parallel. Timeline convergence, cross-asset transmission, and allocator…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
No One Wins, So the War Ends
Game theory analysis of the Iran conflict's six-player structure. Why fragmentation is suppressed, convergence is structural, and the only unknown for…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
Khamenei’s Death and the Man Left Standing
A transmission analysis of Iran’s power vacuum: who was removed, who was spared, and what comes next.
 • Miyama Capital | Memos

February 2026

Structurally Right, Path Wrong: A Post-Strike Review of Our Iran Thesis
Our January base case held directionally. The path to get there was more violent than expected. Here’s what the framework got right, what it missed, and…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
China’s Treasury Sell-Off: The Transmission Mechanism Markets Are Missing
A Transmission Framework for the PBoC’s Dollar Liquidity Squeeze
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
Human Capital Is Being Repriced
Block cut 40%. The stock surged 22%. A transmission analysis for allocators.
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
When Policy Becomes a Portfolio Variable: Stress-Testing Mamdani’s $127B Budget
NYC’s tax base depends on ~34,000 high-income filers. The new mayor wants to push the combined top marginal rate to ~17%. Here’s how a systems engineer…
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
Japan’s Supermajority: What Hawkish Unipolarity Means for Cross-Asset Allocation
The LDP’s 316 seats eliminate the coalition brake on defense, fiscal expansion, and constitutional reform. Here is what needs repricing.
 • Miyama Capital | Memos
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