Miyama Capital | Memos

No Guidance Is Still Guidance

The form changed, the function didn't: after Jackson Hole, the next question in long-end pricing

Sep 12 • Miyama Capital | Memos

July 2026

One Jobs Report, Two Rate Stories

June payrolls came in cold, but the signal that matters sits at both ends of the curve

Jul 4 • Miyama Capital | Memos

June 2026

MOU Holds, Attacks Don’t: Hormuz Enters Command Ambiguity

Iran’s president still wants a deal, but who can actually make the IRGC stand down?

Jun 30 • Miyama Capital | Memos

Proxy Always Falls Short of the Thing Itself

The habitat of market seams: existence is predictable, location is not

Jun 29 • Miyama Capital | Memos

Institution or Narrative: The Unrealized-Gains Tax Panic

No country runs a recurring mark-to-market tax on residents’ holdings. The closest case is already being unwound.

Jun 28 • Miyama Capital | Memos

The Missing Dot: Warsh and the Retreat of Forward Guidance

Miyama Capital — Investment Memo Framework timestamped June 18, 2026 · English edition updated June 25, 2026

Jun 25 • Miyama Capital | Memos

May 2026

The 48-Hour Window

Why the Beijing summit may be the closing venue

May 13 • Miyama Capital | Memos

Taiwan’s Forced Expansion: A Small-Open-Economy Case Study in Financial Repression

Why CPI stability and currency dilution can both be true at once, and what that means for an allocator’s balance sheet.

May 6 • Miyama Capital | Memos

Yen Mean Reversion: A Cross-Asset Repricing, Not an FX Trade

REER at 52.3, a 50-year extreme. Timestamped thesis, falsification conditions, and a vehicle most allocators miss.

May 4 • Miyama Capital | Memos

April 2026

From 3.67% to TACO: The Hormuz Crisis in Cross-Asset Transmission

Three presidents, six weeks of war, and why Trump’s blockade is actually a convoy. A macro allocator’s real-time framework with timestamped predictions.

Apr 14 • Miyama Capital | Memos

The Darkroom Effect: A Five-Step Countdown to IRGC Collapse

Why destroying Iran's grid is a trap, not punishment, and what the next 48 hours mean for allocators

Apr 7 • Miyama Capital | Memos

April 6 Is Showdown Day

Here’s What the Market Isn’t Pricing In

Apr 4 • Miyama Capital | Memos