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From 3.67% to TACO: The Hormuz Crisis in Cross-Asset Transmission
A cross-asset macro analysis of the Hormuz crisis: three presidents, the TACO structural thesis, timestamped predictions, and why Trump’s blockade is…
Apr 14
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Miyama Capital | Memos
The Darkroom Effect: A Five-Step Countdown to IRGC Collapse
Miyama Capital analyzes why destroying Iran's grid is a communications trap, with a five-step IRGC collapse timeline and observable indicators for…
Apr 7
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Miyama Capital | Memos
April 6 Is Showdown Day
Trump's third 48-hour ultimatum expires April 6. Miyama Capital's Day 36 analysis: why the F-15 shoot-down accelerates rather than delays strikes, how a…
Apr 4
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Miyama Capital | Memos
Infrastructure Is the Negotiating Table, and There’s Only One Exit
B1 bridge was Trump's first term sheet. Five paths to Hormuz reopening, three layers of infrastructure warfare, and why Iran's only exit leads to…
Apr 3
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Miyama Capital | Memos
March 2026
While Everyone Watches the War, Someone Is Already Drawing the Post-War Map
Hormuz is reopening via toll booth and four-nation coalition. IRGC collapsing on three layers. Trump names Ghalibaf as counterpart. Framework analysis.
Mar 30
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Miyama Capital | Memos
The Market Is Waiting for a Surrender Ceremony That Won’t Come
IRGC is collapsing from three layers simultaneously. The Iran blockade ends as a process, not an event. Framework for allocators pricing Hormuz…
Mar 29
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Miyama Capital | Memos
The Market Is Waiting for a Surrender Ceremony That Won't Come
IRGC is collapsing from three layers simultaneously. The Iran blockade ends as a process, not an event. Framework for allocators pricing Hormuz…
Mar 28
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Miyama Capital | Memos
Everyone Asks If Trump Will Strike. Wrong Question.
Trump's 48-hour power plant ultimatum signals exit, not escalation. Three scenarios, one direction. A cross-asset macro framework for what comes next.
Mar 23
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Miyama Capital | Memos
Iran’s Missiles Did What U.S. Diplomacy Couldn’t
Iran struck six Gulf states and destroyed its own influence. The U.S. gained four structural advantages. China is the biggest indirect loser. Full…
Mar 18
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Miyama Capital | Memos
Iran’s Leverage Illusion: Why the Clock Is Ticking for Tehran, Not Washington
The public debate asks whether Trump can walk away. The real question is what happens when he does.
Mar 16
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Miyama Capital | Memos
When Sanctions Unwind Themselves: The Iran-Russia Transmission Chain
How a military strike triggered an oil shock, dismantled a sanctions regime, and funded the adversary.
Mar 13
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Miyama Capital | Memos
The Ceasefire Is Priced In. The Normalization Lag Isn’t.
Ceasefire ≠ normalization. Oil supply faces a 4-to-8-week lag across insurance, crew, port, and upstream layers. Cross-asset implications for…
Mar 11
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Miyama Capital | Memos
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